Thank you for continuing to share these discussions with us.
This review illustrates the value of the proposed monitoring system. Early identification of a biological threat and its implications would be of value in determining approaches needed to best deal with it. Any detection of a threat would trigger action for a timely remedial response. It would also call for a timely analysis of the causes - human involvement that implys an intentional or accidental deployment. In a case of accident it could lead to valuable remedial measures and shared cautions for other related facilities. On the other hand if the cause appears to be an intentional breach of the BWC, appopriate measures can begin.
The benefits of a monitoring system are clear. The merits of early detection would help in tailoring responses.The proposed analylytical system is a good candidate to fulfill this challenge.
This comment is based on the real-world effect of the omicron variant rater than the underlying virology.
I became aware of omicron in early December 2021. It took about 2 minutes of research to see that this was going to be the end of the pandemic, because: (1) A South African physician (without a fear-mongering agenda) drily commented that "It appears to be less virulent than earlier strains." (2) The numbers of reported covid cases was indeed skyrocketing in SA, but covid mortality remained as low as it had been before omicron at barely detectable levels (<10 per day).
Hence, omicron was highly contagious, but low virulence. Of course, a personal history of covid vaccination had little protective effect. This meant that omicron was going to spread widely and rapidly through all populations no matter of personal politics, vaccination status, and so forth. And it will confer natural immunity, which is rather more durable than any vaccine-based immunity. As omicron spilled out of SA, there was some short-term pain as covid deaths rose for a couple of months before settling down to background noise by Spring 2022.
One more point on the arrival of omicron variant: In the UK, The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) advised Boris Johnson, then the PM, to reinstate draconian restrictions. They projected 6000 deaths per day as the worse case and 600 per day as the best case. This was just as Xmas season was arriving, and Johnson was distracted by personal scandal and loss of support. In the event, he did not institute the recommended restrictions; the peak omicron death rate was less than half of SAGE's BEST case scenario. In other words, SAGE's models were nonsense. No member of SAGE or the UK media acknowledged the error of their ridiculous projections.
You may not recall my interview on Fox at the time when I said Omicron looked like a Christmas gift because everyone would get natural immunity and yet it had low pathogenicity.
I did scan that article when it first came out, but it was way over my head and I didn't notice a % likelihood of it being lab-based or natural as you did in this article, but maybe I missed it.
well doctor M ..if you used your layered AI modeling analytical technique on original covid strain of march 2019>>> then why aren't you shouting it from rooftops that IT WAS LAB LEAK!!! hmmm??? BIRX(scarf lady🤨) AND FAUCI BELONG IN PRISON
PS--
IF your "tool"is more improved and more sophisticated now, then pls rerun it NOW On original covid 19 strain of mar2019 thank you.
For this science layperson the word variant splains it all. Virus's are capable of mutation; hence variants. It is a survival tool of nature, not unlike our immune systems. This year's flu vaccine for last year's flu ?
Serial passage in the lab , using mice, still sounds like a plausible explanation, not obviated by this mulitstep, LLM analysis. No DNA supplies ordered from biolabs, no genetic signature, no fiddling with the biochemistry otherwise, just keeping a few thousand mice in the lab and doing serial passage.
Why is this not a significant possibility?
It came out of Borswana, a Chinese satrapy for all practical purposes.
The idea the virus used a single immunocompromised person to evolve all those mutations in short order really seems far-fetched. And how did that happen? What would have facilitated its rapid promulgation through worldwide populace?
Pardon an idiological question but just why would anyone go to this trouble to create this virus? That question alone would bias me to disbelieve lab creation.
If you disbelieve the notion because it's too much trouble, then I'd ask the question- why would anyone make GOF organisms in the first place? It is certainly not to study for new vaccines .It's alot of 'trouble'. It seems logical to me that anyone who was fiddling with the genetics of a virus to begin with, and concocted a unit that was infectious but not very lethal as was the first agent, might consider making it more infectious.
GOF performed to create viruses of enhanced lethality, infection, or both...either to develop treatment strategies for such viruses or to create bioweapons. This virus does not appear likely to fit,either scenario. And there is onheck of amount if work involved in creating these critters
On the other hand, in the beginning, if one wanted to create (was funded to create) a Frankenstein monster or a source of a pot of gold, one couldn't know what one's efforts would actually deliver could one?
lab leaks occur quite often; you just don't hear about it.Most likely a precurser of wuhan-1 escaped into north carolina from Barics lab some yrs before the covid hysteria began in 2020.
Well assuming it was created nefariously at the behest of someone who provided financing - to gain such benefits it might offer toward their goals? If the goal was a pot of gold timeliness would play a part as well.
Tough reading on a Sat morning, but felt needed to try hard. Good that international groups are trying to follow potential biological threats, which has been going on for decades. Evidently pinning down actual pathways is complex, because nature is complex. But these explanations are interesting to follow. And recommendations seem solid, if everyone can follow them.
Trust AI analysis? I've lost count of how many times I've had to prod whatever AI I've used to get it to fully answer my questions that deviate from the narrative (e.g. vaccines, government corruption, natural remedies). Did the AI add the suspicious gain-of-function Fauci activities to it's analysis?
AI is partly right and partly wrong. Omicron was developed and released as a live vaccine. The reason is that a number of deadly Covid "variants" had been developed all at one time, but were being released in waves, so that Covid lockdowns and deaths would continue, and so that more lucrative vaccines could be made every year. But Omicron brought that dastardly plan to a halt, as it conferred a more general immunity. End of Covid. Even Bill Gates realized this. Shortly after Omicron came out and it was clear what was happening, he was on a panel where he mused about Omicron being a Live vaccine. Shortly after or at the same time as that admission, he called a halt to further Covid vaccines. With that 1 panel/interview (I forget what the venue was) he basically was saying, if I read between the lines correctly, Hey boys, its time to put a fork in it, there is no more money to be made. That interview would be worth watching, and the subsquent articles in the press worth reading. Yes, he actually used the phrase "live vaccine".
So, Dr. M, does all of the "evidence" presented here indicate the Chinese Communist government was telling the truth in January, 2020, when their "official" statement was that the COVID Virus (somehow) began at the WUHAN "WET-MARKET"? (Never mind that the WUHAN Institute of Virology was not far FROM the Wet Market)? If so, the WUHAN Wet-Market patrons (COINCIDENTALLY) must ALL have airplane tickets to virtually EVERY country on the planet and immediately departed China! Ummm, that doesn't COMPUTE.
Have wondered why Baysian not used more. It eliminates the bias introduced by normal statistics assuming all parameters being measured are known
thank you for that comment, Dr. Nash
Thank you for continuing to share these discussions with us.
This review illustrates the value of the proposed monitoring system. Early identification of a biological threat and its implications would be of value in determining approaches needed to best deal with it. Any detection of a threat would trigger action for a timely remedial response. It would also call for a timely analysis of the causes - human involvement that implys an intentional or accidental deployment. In a case of accident it could lead to valuable remedial measures and shared cautions for other related facilities. On the other hand if the cause appears to be an intentional breach of the BWC, appopriate measures can begin.
The benefits of a monitoring system are clear. The merits of early detection would help in tailoring responses.The proposed analylytical system is a good candidate to fulfill this challenge.
This comment is based on the real-world effect of the omicron variant rater than the underlying virology.
I became aware of omicron in early December 2021. It took about 2 minutes of research to see that this was going to be the end of the pandemic, because: (1) A South African physician (without a fear-mongering agenda) drily commented that "It appears to be less virulent than earlier strains." (2) The numbers of reported covid cases was indeed skyrocketing in SA, but covid mortality remained as low as it had been before omicron at barely detectable levels (<10 per day).
Hence, omicron was highly contagious, but low virulence. Of course, a personal history of covid vaccination had little protective effect. This meant that omicron was going to spread widely and rapidly through all populations no matter of personal politics, vaccination status, and so forth. And it will confer natural immunity, which is rather more durable than any vaccine-based immunity. As omicron spilled out of SA, there was some short-term pain as covid deaths rose for a couple of months before settling down to background noise by Spring 2022.
One more point on the arrival of omicron variant: In the UK, The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) advised Boris Johnson, then the PM, to reinstate draconian restrictions. They projected 6000 deaths per day as the worse case and 600 per day as the best case. This was just as Xmas season was arriving, and Johnson was distracted by personal scandal and loss of support. In the event, he did not institute the recommended restrictions; the peak omicron death rate was less than half of SAGE's BEST case scenario. In other words, SAGE's models were nonsense. No member of SAGE or the UK media acknowledged the error of their ridiculous projections.
You may not recall my interview on Fox at the time when I said Omicron looked like a Christmas gift because everyone would get natural immunity and yet it had low pathogenicity.
I was not aware of your interview on Fox. Great minds think alike! ;-)
Yep, I remember it well.
Has an AI analysis been done on the original covid-19 virus to get its determination on the likelihood of the original virus origins?
It was my initial analysis demo project. The tool is more sophisticated now and I intend to re-run at some point. https://www.malone.news/p/the-invisible-inspectors-how-artificial
I did scan that article when it first came out, but it was way over my head and I didn't notice a % likelihood of it being lab-based or natural as you did in this article, but maybe I missed it.
Yes, give us the lay person's conclusion.
re run it!
well doctor M ..if you used your layered AI modeling analytical technique on original covid strain of march 2019>>> then why aren't you shouting it from rooftops that IT WAS LAB LEAK!!! hmmm??? BIRX(scarf lady🤨) AND FAUCI BELONG IN PRISON
PS--
IF your "tool"is more improved and more sophisticated now, then pls rerun it NOW On original covid 19 strain of mar2019 thank you.
Joe on the street thinks the lab let the cat out of the bag and then as cats do, multiplied from there.
Nice metaphor
My comment on the Omicron post accidentally became attached to the Bird Flu post. So sorry!
Has this technology been trained to pick up on Ralph Baric’s “noseeum” method of gene insertion?
I believe that the specialty sequence analysis software packages have. I have not integrated those in yet. This is a demo project at this point.
Thank you!
I call "Artificial BS" on this one.
We know the original variant came from a lab.
How the rest happened is just an academic exercise.
The exact true story remains untold and will probably always remain in question.
For this science layperson the word variant splains it all. Virus's are capable of mutation; hence variants. It is a survival tool of nature, not unlike our immune systems. This year's flu vaccine for last year's flu ?
Serial passage in the lab , using mice, still sounds like a plausible explanation, not obviated by this mulitstep, LLM analysis. No DNA supplies ordered from biolabs, no genetic signature, no fiddling with the biochemistry otherwise, just keeping a few thousand mice in the lab and doing serial passage.
Why is this not a significant possibility?
It came out of Borswana, a Chinese satrapy for all practical purposes.
The idea the virus used a single immunocompromised person to evolve all those mutations in short order really seems far-fetched. And how did that happen? What would have facilitated its rapid promulgation through worldwide populace?
-M R Weiss, MD
Pardon an idiological question but just why would anyone go to this trouble to create this virus? That question alone would bias me to disbelieve lab creation.
If you disbelieve the notion because it's too much trouble, then I'd ask the question- why would anyone make GOF organisms in the first place? It is certainly not to study for new vaccines .It's alot of 'trouble'. It seems logical to me that anyone who was fiddling with the genetics of a virus to begin with, and concocted a unit that was infectious but not very lethal as was the first agent, might consider making it more infectious.
GOF performed to create viruses of enhanced lethality, infection, or both...either to develop treatment strategies for such viruses or to create bioweapons. This virus does not appear likely to fit,either scenario. And there is onheck of amount if work involved in creating these critters
On the other hand, in the beginning, if one wanted to create (was funded to create) a Frankenstein monster or a source of a pot of gold, one couldn't know what one's efforts would actually deliver could one?
But why set it loose? Another leak? If these labs that leaky then by all means all,this,work should stop
exactly what do you mean "if these labs [were] that leaky"?
Merler et al. BMC Medicine 2013, 11:252
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/11/252
lab leaks occur quite often; you just don't hear about it.Most likely a precurser of wuhan-1 escaped into north carolina from Barics lab some yrs before the covid hysteria began in 2020.
Well assuming it was created nefariously at the behest of someone who provided financing - to gain such benefits it might offer toward their goals? If the goal was a pot of gold timeliness would play a part as well.
Tough reading on a Sat morning, but felt needed to try hard. Good that international groups are trying to follow potential biological threats, which has been going on for decades. Evidently pinning down actual pathways is complex, because nature is complex. But these explanations are interesting to follow. And recommendations seem solid, if everyone can follow them.
Trust AI analysis? I've lost count of how many times I've had to prod whatever AI I've used to get it to fully answer my questions that deviate from the narrative (e.g. vaccines, government corruption, natural remedies). Did the AI add the suspicious gain-of-function Fauci activities to it's analysis?
AI is partly right and partly wrong. Omicron was developed and released as a live vaccine. The reason is that a number of deadly Covid "variants" had been developed all at one time, but were being released in waves, so that Covid lockdowns and deaths would continue, and so that more lucrative vaccines could be made every year. But Omicron brought that dastardly plan to a halt, as it conferred a more general immunity. End of Covid. Even Bill Gates realized this. Shortly after Omicron came out and it was clear what was happening, he was on a panel where he mused about Omicron being a Live vaccine. Shortly after or at the same time as that admission, he called a halt to further Covid vaccines. With that 1 panel/interview (I forget what the venue was) he basically was saying, if I read between the lines correctly, Hey boys, its time to put a fork in it, there is no more money to be made. That interview would be worth watching, and the subsquent articles in the press worth reading. Yes, he actually used the phrase "live vaccine".
Yes, but does this apply to the original strain, Alpha or whatever it was?
I confess I had never thought that Omicron was not natural. RNA viruses mutate, often at speed. Common things occur commonly.
So, Dr. M, does all of the "evidence" presented here indicate the Chinese Communist government was telling the truth in January, 2020, when their "official" statement was that the COVID Virus (somehow) began at the WUHAN "WET-MARKET"? (Never mind that the WUHAN Institute of Virology was not far FROM the Wet Market)? If so, the WUHAN Wet-Market patrons (COINCIDENTALLY) must ALL have airplane tickets to virtually EVERY country on the planet and immediately departed China! Ummm, that doesn't COMPUTE.