RFK’s Jr’s recent statement about continuing with the measles vaccine in Texas begs the question of is he right? Or should he be explaining the information put forth in this article, or both? I, over the years past 70, have refused my doc’s urging to get the shingles shot. My neighbor gets it and has had three extreme episodes of the virus. I did get it but all that happened was the rash and itching. Never any pain as people seem to experience. Did let the doc talk me into the pneumonia shot 14 years ago and I came down with it. So I don’t put much stock in some of these ‘preventative’ vaccines. At 88 I’ll stick to my higher doses of Vit C and D, a couple other supplements and nasal flushing. Still live in a single residence and plan to live this way til death.
So informative! Always looking after your fellow Americans. Helping to keep us free and informed. So appreciate you and your wife for staying in the fight. ❤️🌹
In my view. A deep dive in how our children's immune system develops into a strong and vibrant immune system into the adult stage to protect us from all pathogens. Seems to have been ignored by mainstream medicine that keeps dreaming up alternative treatments. Seasonality, and being deficient in key nutrients such as Vitamin D and Magnesium creates a lot of the variability.
Having it interrupted as it develops cannot help either. The imposition of a peanut allergy epidemic here by pediatricians and tony fauci serve as examples.
Someone might share it with Fauci. However, he is likely sipping a fruity drink at a beachside estate he now owns, with his wife ( recently banished to Alaska). They both deserve orange jumpsuits.
I remain bemused by all the fuss over measles. At age 82, when I was a kid we all had measles every few years when another variant of measles blew through our community. We had big red measles, German measles, and other measles that we didn't bother to differentiate. We never went to the doctor, but Mother made us stay in bed for the duration. She was, of course, a stay-at-home mom (most were then) and I got royal treatment while sick. Measles were a rite of passage on the way to growing up. I'm sure there were complications, but if so I was never told. I think we had to stay in a dark room and protect our eyes. This was an interesting article, thanks!
The American public have been educated by the media to believe that the MMR vaccine is "safe and effective" and therefore any discussion about not vaccinating your children is seen as an inexcusable, reckless, and selfish thing to do. Having a vaccine-preventable infection is stigmatized worse than having an STD in our country. But, in spite of the recent outbreak there still needs to be serious scientific discussion about the tradeoffs between the risks of vaccine side effects and the risk of the infectious disease the vaccines are designed to prevent. This is not an easy discussion because the measles virus can result in children dying. But at the same time, most kids do not die from measles, and are trading the risk of being ill for a few days with the risk of having various chronic conditions (perhaps including autism) which will harm them for the rest of their lives. (I know - there's no scientific proof that vaccines cause autism. That's because an unbiased, placebo-controlled, long-term study has not been conducted. So it's accurate to say that "there's no scientific evidence.")
World council for health or was it stand for health freedom, one of them published an article within the past six months stating that there is definite proof that autism is caused by the aluminum adjuvant. Anyone interested may want to look on their website for the article. It stated something like international scientists have the proof that autism is caused by the aluminum, now what will America do?
Disease models are a sham—they never work, and they never will. Why? Because the parameter values driving them are impossible to know with any accuracy. Modelers just guess, and those guesses lead to wildly inaccurate predictions. I should know—I’ve built and worked with mathematical models for over 45 years. Take Neil Ferguson, the poster child of COVID-19 modeling fame, as a glaring example. His track record is a case In point. In 2005, he predicted bird flu would kill 200 million people. There were 282 deaths worldwide. Next, he had at Swine flu. He said it would kill 65,000 Brits. It killed 457. Then came Mad cow disease. He forecasted 50,000 British deaths. The actual number 177. Then came the COVID-19 mess. Ferguson’s CovidSim model predicted 250 million deaths. The actual number 230,000, off by a factor of 1000. In the U.S., he projected 2.2 million deaths. The actual number? Around 34,933 when counting only COVID-19 as the sole cause.
The problem lies in the models themselves. There are all kinds of versions of SIR models but they are all built on partial knowledge. They are simple systems of differential equations, nothing remarkable: susceptible, infected, recovered, with parameters like infection rate (\beta), recovery rate (\gamma), and reproduction number (R_0). But tweak any parameter—say, adjust R_0 from 2.5 to 3, like Ferguson did mid-pandemic—and the model spirals into chaos, giving you ridiculous numbers. CovidSim has 940 sensitive parameters making it a mess of confusion. But still It doesn’t account for the real world: where people live, what they eat, who they touch, their immune systems, their behaviors. Every individual represents millions of unknown variables and models ignore them all.
Models don’t predict reality—they predict what their builders tell them to predict. Ferguson’s guesses, baked into CovidSim, drove global lockdowns, yet the code was a “buggy mess,” producing different results for the same inputs (up to 80,000 deaths off over 80 days). This isn’t an attack on Ferguson all modelers are guilty of this. I’ve seen it in my own work. Without knowing we build in our own assumptions.
The deeper issue is what I’ve said all along: we can never know the full causal path. Epidemiology, the softest of soft sciences, is a prime offender. The spread of disease is infinitely complex. Every cough, every handshake, every immune response is a variable we can’t capture. Models simply can’t replicate the process of a pandemic. It’s a guess, dressed up as science.
So why use models at all? They’re statistical crutches in a field that shouldn’t touch statistics. Epidemiology should be barred from the game—it’s too messy, too unknowable. How could we possibly know the distribution of disease spread. We hammer data into SIR curves or Poisson processes, but reality doesn’t care. Forget the models. Focus on the process—observe, adapt, act—without pretending we can predict the unpredictable.
I see the the immune system functionally divided into 2 basic venues...circulating and localized. And just as the infant/child has to develop immunotolerance for the food introduced to it as it matures (for instance, peanuts), the immune system also has to develop immunotolerance to its host. And the localized elements must develop what I call site specific tolerance. If this is interfered with then the stage may be set for autoimmune disorders. This is a process that likely continues well into early childhood and it seems idiotic to risk interrupting with the absurd infant/child vaccine schedule. Not only does the naive developing immunity have to deal with a host of new antigens but also a slew of adjuvants which may also alter the immunotolerance process and an increased risk of autoimmune disease and cancer.
Thank you for covering current scientific knowledges and theories on succeptabilies, introduction, coping and extinction of viral diseases and measles.
It has been disappointing, given the facts relating to the measles deaths you shared with us, that Kennedy appears to have been backed into a full throated support for vaccinating. Then add your coverage here as relating to the ebb and flow of disease incidents.
We have the measles issue in Texas of maximum concern, while the measles issue in Canada is ignored. In addition to measles, we evidently have a new bird flu variant brewing in China infecting humans - just waiting to visit us.
To me, this whole matter relates to psyching our populous to support a take down Kennedy and Trump. And coincidentally (?) re-sell them on vaccinating.
Imo, we need to be coming up with population directed education (with our own directed positive thinking) they can appreciate to counter their unfortunate likely impressions.
As an aside, I hope Kennedy and his folks come up with better address these attacks on HHS competence for handling such issues.
I saw, read, heard RFKJ visited Texas to see/talk with the parents of the latest child (female) who died. This was of course, for media, to re-emphasize her death due to Measles (unlike what Dr. Malone provided). Have no clue as to what that meeting accomplished. I, like you, hope/wish/pray as HHS leader, he will digest the time spent/father's denied request by hospital and apply that knowledge fruitfully. Unfortunately, I also think he must move slowly and cautiously, making it Very frustrating when coupled with young innocents being subjected to whims of medical professionals(?) and terrified/less knowledgeable parents.
He also attended the funeral. A signal of appreciation and compassion minimally reported. I surely agree with you, it's very important to take the time and strategise responses to situations like this. Repositioning are likely weakening.
As a young man in the 70's, I assisted on an autopsy of a SIDS (sudden infant death syndrome) patient. The pathologist made it a point to show me the (impressive) size and importance of the Thymus gland in childhood disease prevention and letting me know mine was all but gone. Vaccine Scientism would prefer not to acknowledge that salient bit of physiology.
If I had only known in the late 80's, early 90's, I most likely would Not have let my two guys be vaccinated. They received far less than today's children, but even back then, I'm beginning to believe it did not do them favors. They never got measles or mumps (MMR shots), only C pox and I wonder if things like my oldest son's psoriasis/arthritis is a direct result.
I Did refuse bottle feeding (that's a whole other story and medical interference agenda), so maybe they've received some benefits. So, so frustrating.
Since the "devil is in the details" I will leave the deeper details to others, and express my frustration and wonderment at the lack of correct information being thrown around. But then, as Fauci was seen as the "expert" and Really wasn't, it's no wonder. When childhood diseases aren't allowed to run their natural course we are left with many more complications and severe illness. The old saying of "Don't mess with Mother Nature" seems to be even more important as we continually see the results from 'going where no man has ever gone before.' We have a hard time knowing when to let things run their natural direction and having the knowledge to know how to best intervene. Your extensive knowledge is appreciated, (I hope Geert reads this too).
Have yet go determine what tony the lip is/was an expert in. Never really practiced medicine, had no formal scientific training. He is an administrator...period.
RFK’s Jr’s recent statement about continuing with the measles vaccine in Texas begs the question of is he right? Or should he be explaining the information put forth in this article, or both? I, over the years past 70, have refused my doc’s urging to get the shingles shot. My neighbor gets it and has had three extreme episodes of the virus. I did get it but all that happened was the rash and itching. Never any pain as people seem to experience. Did let the doc talk me into the pneumonia shot 14 years ago and I came down with it. So I don’t put much stock in some of these ‘preventative’ vaccines. At 88 I’ll stick to my higher doses of Vit C and D, a couple other supplements and nasal flushing. Still live in a single residence and plan to live this way til death.
So informative! Always looking after your fellow Americans. Helping to keep us free and informed. So appreciate you and your wife for staying in the fight. ❤️🌹
We really owe Dr. and Mrs. Malone a debt.
💯‼️💯‼️
This was a very clear explanation of the relationship between the viral reproduction numbers and the phenomenon of herd immunity.
My simple mind just sees the R number as an expression of how fast a strain of virus can become a dud.
🤣 Top quote of the month: "There. If you have been following along, now you know more about viral epidemiology than Anthony Fauci does."
Fauci drove me up a wall with his mendacity decades before COVID happened.
In my view. A deep dive in how our children's immune system develops into a strong and vibrant immune system into the adult stage to protect us from all pathogens. Seems to have been ignored by mainstream medicine that keeps dreaming up alternative treatments. Seasonality, and being deficient in key nutrients such as Vitamin D and Magnesium creates a lot of the variability.
Having it interrupted as it develops cannot help either. The imposition of a peanut allergy epidemic here by pediatricians and tony fauci serve as examples.
Thank you for the insight!
Someone might share it with Fauci. However, he is likely sipping a fruity drink at a beachside estate he now owns, with his wife ( recently banished to Alaska). They both deserve orange jumpsuits.
And concrete shoes.
I remain bemused by all the fuss over measles. At age 82, when I was a kid we all had measles every few years when another variant of measles blew through our community. We had big red measles, German measles, and other measles that we didn't bother to differentiate. We never went to the doctor, but Mother made us stay in bed for the duration. She was, of course, a stay-at-home mom (most were then) and I got royal treatment while sick. Measles were a rite of passage on the way to growing up. I'm sure there were complications, but if so I was never told. I think we had to stay in a dark room and protect our eyes. This was an interesting article, thanks!
The American public have been educated by the media to believe that the MMR vaccine is "safe and effective" and therefore any discussion about not vaccinating your children is seen as an inexcusable, reckless, and selfish thing to do. Having a vaccine-preventable infection is stigmatized worse than having an STD in our country. But, in spite of the recent outbreak there still needs to be serious scientific discussion about the tradeoffs between the risks of vaccine side effects and the risk of the infectious disease the vaccines are designed to prevent. This is not an easy discussion because the measles virus can result in children dying. But at the same time, most kids do not die from measles, and are trading the risk of being ill for a few days with the risk of having various chronic conditions (perhaps including autism) which will harm them for the rest of their lives. (I know - there's no scientific proof that vaccines cause autism. That's because an unbiased, placebo-controlled, long-term study has not been conducted. So it's accurate to say that "there's no scientific evidence.")
World council for health or was it stand for health freedom, one of them published an article within the past six months stating that there is definite proof that autism is caused by the aluminum adjuvant. Anyone interested may want to look on their website for the article. It stated something like international scientists have the proof that autism is caused by the aluminum, now what will America do?
Thank you, Dr. Malone.
Disease models are a sham—they never work, and they never will. Why? Because the parameter values driving them are impossible to know with any accuracy. Modelers just guess, and those guesses lead to wildly inaccurate predictions. I should know—I’ve built and worked with mathematical models for over 45 years. Take Neil Ferguson, the poster child of COVID-19 modeling fame, as a glaring example. His track record is a case In point. In 2005, he predicted bird flu would kill 200 million people. There were 282 deaths worldwide. Next, he had at Swine flu. He said it would kill 65,000 Brits. It killed 457. Then came Mad cow disease. He forecasted 50,000 British deaths. The actual number 177. Then came the COVID-19 mess. Ferguson’s CovidSim model predicted 250 million deaths. The actual number 230,000, off by a factor of 1000. In the U.S., he projected 2.2 million deaths. The actual number? Around 34,933 when counting only COVID-19 as the sole cause.
The problem lies in the models themselves. There are all kinds of versions of SIR models but they are all built on partial knowledge. They are simple systems of differential equations, nothing remarkable: susceptible, infected, recovered, with parameters like infection rate (\beta), recovery rate (\gamma), and reproduction number (R_0). But tweak any parameter—say, adjust R_0 from 2.5 to 3, like Ferguson did mid-pandemic—and the model spirals into chaos, giving you ridiculous numbers. CovidSim has 940 sensitive parameters making it a mess of confusion. But still It doesn’t account for the real world: where people live, what they eat, who they touch, their immune systems, their behaviors. Every individual represents millions of unknown variables and models ignore them all.
Models don’t predict reality—they predict what their builders tell them to predict. Ferguson’s guesses, baked into CovidSim, drove global lockdowns, yet the code was a “buggy mess,” producing different results for the same inputs (up to 80,000 deaths off over 80 days). This isn’t an attack on Ferguson all modelers are guilty of this. I’ve seen it in my own work. Without knowing we build in our own assumptions.
The deeper issue is what I’ve said all along: we can never know the full causal path. Epidemiology, the softest of soft sciences, is a prime offender. The spread of disease is infinitely complex. Every cough, every handshake, every immune response is a variable we can’t capture. Models simply can’t replicate the process of a pandemic. It’s a guess, dressed up as science.
So why use models at all? They’re statistical crutches in a field that shouldn’t touch statistics. Epidemiology should be barred from the game—it’s too messy, too unknowable. How could we possibly know the distribution of disease spread. We hammer data into SIR curves or Poisson processes, but reality doesn’t care. Forget the models. Focus on the process—observe, adapt, act—without pretending we can predict the unpredictable.
To expound further on my earlier comment:
I see the the immune system functionally divided into 2 basic venues...circulating and localized. And just as the infant/child has to develop immunotolerance for the food introduced to it as it matures (for instance, peanuts), the immune system also has to develop immunotolerance to its host. And the localized elements must develop what I call site specific tolerance. If this is interfered with then the stage may be set for autoimmune disorders. This is a process that likely continues well into early childhood and it seems idiotic to risk interrupting with the absurd infant/child vaccine schedule. Not only does the naive developing immunity have to deal with a host of new antigens but also a slew of adjuvants which may also alter the immunotolerance process and an increased risk of autoimmune disease and cancer.
What I wanna know, is HOW in the world did Fauci become the highest paid non-productive UN-elected bureaucrat - pulling down $400,000,00 + per year?
Tom, that salary was a drop in the bucket compared to the millions he made from big pharma.
Right you are, GM...with that in mind, ALL of his federal "pension" and perks should be STOPPED immediately.
Yes. He should also be issued an orange jumpsuit and a one way ticket to Guantanamo.
We (majority) weren't (aren't) really paying attention and trusted (trust) too much.
SHAME on us!
Yep. All those pretty sounding words...do as I say...
Indeed. Even the Peter Principle can't adequately explain that.
Thank you for covering current scientific knowledges and theories on succeptabilies, introduction, coping and extinction of viral diseases and measles.
It has been disappointing, given the facts relating to the measles deaths you shared with us, that Kennedy appears to have been backed into a full throated support for vaccinating. Then add your coverage here as relating to the ebb and flow of disease incidents.
We have the measles issue in Texas of maximum concern, while the measles issue in Canada is ignored. In addition to measles, we evidently have a new bird flu variant brewing in China infecting humans - just waiting to visit us.
To me, this whole matter relates to psyching our populous to support a take down Kennedy and Trump. And coincidentally (?) re-sell them on vaccinating.
Imo, we need to be coming up with population directed education (with our own directed positive thinking) they can appreciate to counter their unfortunate likely impressions.
As an aside, I hope Kennedy and his folks come up with better address these attacks on HHS competence for handling such issues.
I saw, read, heard RFKJ visited Texas to see/talk with the parents of the latest child (female) who died. This was of course, for media, to re-emphasize her death due to Measles (unlike what Dr. Malone provided). Have no clue as to what that meeting accomplished. I, like you, hope/wish/pray as HHS leader, he will digest the time spent/father's denied request by hospital and apply that knowledge fruitfully. Unfortunately, I also think he must move slowly and cautiously, making it Very frustrating when coupled with young innocents being subjected to whims of medical professionals(?) and terrified/less knowledgeable parents.
He also attended the funeral. A signal of appreciation and compassion minimally reported. I surely agree with you, it's very important to take the time and strategise responses to situations like this. Repositioning are likely weakening.
Great job again Dr. Malone~!
We here hope that your foot is on the mend and that you will be back to full health in time for Summer~! ;-)
Sincerely, Mike
As a young man in the 70's, I assisted on an autopsy of a SIDS (sudden infant death syndrome) patient. The pathologist made it a point to show me the (impressive) size and importance of the Thymus gland in childhood disease prevention and letting me know mine was all but gone. Vaccine Scientism would prefer not to acknowledge that salient bit of physiology.
If I had only known in the late 80's, early 90's, I most likely would Not have let my two guys be vaccinated. They received far less than today's children, but even back then, I'm beginning to believe it did not do them favors. They never got measles or mumps (MMR shots), only C pox and I wonder if things like my oldest son's psoriasis/arthritis is a direct result.
I Did refuse bottle feeding (that's a whole other story and medical interference agenda), so maybe they've received some benefits. So, so frustrating.
Since the "devil is in the details" I will leave the deeper details to others, and express my frustration and wonderment at the lack of correct information being thrown around. But then, as Fauci was seen as the "expert" and Really wasn't, it's no wonder. When childhood diseases aren't allowed to run their natural course we are left with many more complications and severe illness. The old saying of "Don't mess with Mother Nature" seems to be even more important as we continually see the results from 'going where no man has ever gone before.' We have a hard time knowing when to let things run their natural direction and having the knowledge to know how to best intervene. Your extensive knowledge is appreciated, (I hope Geert reads this too).
Have yet go determine what tony the lip is/was an expert in. Never really practiced medicine, had no formal scientific training. He is an administrator...period.
There might be a word for him, but I don't think it's "administrator". Maybe something like swampy sumbitch?
That works!