There's a huge warning visible to those informed by history: the current rise of anti-semitism across the Western world has horrific precedents. Every time Jews become targets, disaster follows - in often unpredictable ways. Beware. Be wary.
From your mouth to God's ears, as our Jewish brothers and sisters are wont to say.
But, for a "chosen" people, they have been subjected to some seriously awful things across the ages. Makes one wonder, chosen for what? And now, even in our own beloved Republic, which has sheltered American Jews since the days of Washington, and been rewarded many times over for our hospitality, how can we countenance the abomination of seeing pogroms launched in our cities, including the capital of Jewish culture and achievement; New York City. The notion that the city targeted for Islamic terror just a quarter century ago, is now run by a Jew-hating, Islamic communist should be unacceptable to every American.
The anti-American Mamdani, who lied on his citizenship papers should not even be in America. He is connected to others who are radicals that are out to take down America. Communists, Socialists and Muslims should be banned from office...They do not support our Constitution and are out to change our country and take over.
I agree completely. Mamdani took an oath to the Constitution to gain citizenship. That was a lie. A communist cannot be faithful to our Constitution. He should be deported back to Uganda.
Jehovah God warned the Israelites over and over again that they had to obey Him. Throughout their ancient history, their kings and tribes did not obey, only a few kings obeyed. The Hebrew scriptures known as the Old Testament to Christians, does say that if they didn’t obey, they would lose their chosen people status. Joshua 24:20 and other verses. With the teachings of Jesus, Matthew 23: 37-38, and other verses in the Bible, he did not preach that they were the chosen people anymore. They lost that status because they chose not to obey Jehovah God. One of the reasons for his coming that put Christians no longer under the mosaic law.
I wish them well, they have endured many travesties beyond human dignity and comprehension. For me this is a 6000 year war that is between two peoples. It hasn’t been solved in 6000 years and I don’t believe that America can solve this religious war. No more killing.
Excellent work..and terrifying at the same time. It appears anything can be defeated depending on how much effort the “other side” wants to apply. And we think we are “safe”… God decides indeed.
Considering that failures seem to occur at,the top, perhaps it would be a good idea to investigate just how those at the top got there. If, as I have experienced, adroit butt kissing a major role in advancement then maybe repeated really long looks at those on top ia warranted.
As I skim this long informative piece, I get the drift of your understanding of these mechanisms. Your ability to see the patterns is exactly what the "intelligence" needs to comprehend. There are some huge gaps in the training systems that continue to allow huge, dangerous events. Tony Robbins has consulted and trained some military factions, you certainly could too. It takes a certain kind of insight to see and implement strategies. What a team you both could be.
Fascinating article. Much of it applies to personal assumptions and decision making as well.
People like to make decisions and move on without second guessing which gives temporary peace of mind. Much like learning how to ignore sunk cost in investment decisions, a reassessment of past decisions is vital to future success.
Perhaps the most important attribute of any leader is to create an atmosphere that encourages and rewards all views, including a self examination of biases of the leader by the leader . Looking back over my 88 years, I'm having trouble coming up with any names.
As in the case of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, one cannot discount the possibility of intentional inaction by a cynical government willing to sacrifice its own people to achieve a political objective. In the case of Pearl Harbor, it justified FDR's long-standing antipathy towards Germany and his long-standing sympathy with communism, to plunge the United States into a war that the vast majority of the citizenry wanted no part of. In Israel's case, it justified full-scale war against Gaza (under the guise of disarming Hamas).
What all these events have in common: Institutionalization and the self-serving inefficiency of bigness. Smallness is an antidote to bigness, but coordinating smallness to scale presents much the same problem. Perhaps the insertion of “questioning gradients” with authority in the hierarchy, similar to Israel’s Devil’s Advocate could be a crucial component. The problem is clear in hindsight. But when the false alarms number 100, how does one identify the one of the 100 that is a valid threat?
But now, we are all called to action. The mass invasion that the Biden administration authorized is more than criminal. It is treasonous. Those behind the autopen scandal have skated free and are plotting a return to power, but their cancerous legacy is real. The canary in the coal mine has long been dead and its corpse rotted. We have too many enemies to ignore, and many are already here, some public, but the foreign functionaries are simply preparing and waiting for their signal to strike. Vigilance is the order of the day. See something, say something.
This is the “mistakes were made” theory of history. There is also the “mistakes were not made” theory. I believe both are valid. The challenge becomes in knowing which theory was most relevant at a given place and time in history.
They were doing what the observers’ superiors did: receiving information that contradicted a settled model and dismissing it as noise.
A qualified judgment hardens into an unqualified premise
……enemy did not merely arrive unexpectedly. It arrived through a possibility the prevailing model had ruled out.
……studied the system……..
…young women at the observation posts did not hold a threat assessment. They knew what the far side of the fence looked like on an ordinary Tuesday, well enough to notice when it stopped looking ordinary.
….close enough to events to recognize …. forces preparing for war, .. warnings never reached the people making decisions
…only people with an accurate picture of what was happening on their own streets
….systems designed to move local knowledge upward to a central authority that would decide. Every one of these systems was designed on the assumption that local knowledge could be transmitted upward without losing its meaning.
….details most likely to challenge the model are the first to be discarded as noise. At every level, the filter preferentially strips away disconfirming evidence.
There's a huge warning visible to those informed by history: the current rise of anti-semitism across the Western world has horrific precedents. Every time Jews become targets, disaster follows - in often unpredictable ways. Beware. Be wary.
From your mouth to God's ears, as our Jewish brothers and sisters are wont to say.
But, for a "chosen" people, they have been subjected to some seriously awful things across the ages. Makes one wonder, chosen for what? And now, even in our own beloved Republic, which has sheltered American Jews since the days of Washington, and been rewarded many times over for our hospitality, how can we countenance the abomination of seeing pogroms launched in our cities, including the capital of Jewish culture and achievement; New York City. The notion that the city targeted for Islamic terror just a quarter century ago, is now run by a Jew-hating, Islamic communist should be unacceptable to every American.
The anti-American Mamdani, who lied on his citizenship papers should not even be in America. He is connected to others who are radicals that are out to take down America. Communists, Socialists and Muslims should be banned from office...They do not support our Constitution and are out to change our country and take over.
I agree completely. Mamdani took an oath to the Constitution to gain citizenship. That was a lie. A communist cannot be faithful to our Constitution. He should be deported back to Uganda.
Jehovah God warned the Israelites over and over again that they had to obey Him. Throughout their ancient history, their kings and tribes did not obey, only a few kings obeyed. The Hebrew scriptures known as the Old Testament to Christians, does say that if they didn’t obey, they would lose their chosen people status. Joshua 24:20 and other verses. With the teachings of Jesus, Matthew 23: 37-38, and other verses in the Bible, he did not preach that they were the chosen people anymore. They lost that status because they chose not to obey Jehovah God. One of the reasons for his coming that put Christians no longer under the mosaic law.
I wish them well, they have endured many travesties beyond human dignity and comprehension. For me this is a 6000 year war that is between two peoples. It hasn’t been solved in 6000 years and I don’t believe that America can solve this religious war. No more killing.
Sorry but what 6000 year war and between whom?
Excellent work..and terrifying at the same time. It appears anything can be defeated depending on how much effort the “other side” wants to apply. And we think we are “safe”… God decides indeed.
Considering that failures seem to occur at,the top, perhaps it would be a good idea to investigate just how those at the top got there. If, as I have experienced, adroit butt kissing a major role in advancement then maybe repeated really long looks at those on top ia warranted.
In my long career it has become all too often true that those who are elevated are the most adept at organizational game playing.
And little else.
Hey Chief, I'm picking up a large formation of planes approaching Hawaii.
Oh, don't worry, it's a bunch of B-17s coming from America.
But Chief, they're coming from the northwest..........
Duh!.
And didn't Dana Bash say that vaccines are the most studied thing in science?????
We live in an idiocracy and we keep on paying them fortunes to lie to us. Let's take a really deep look in that mirror now.
This was such an honest, well researched and brilliant article. I just became a paid subscriber.
Thank you
As I skim this long informative piece, I get the drift of your understanding of these mechanisms. Your ability to see the patterns is exactly what the "intelligence" needs to comprehend. There are some huge gaps in the training systems that continue to allow huge, dangerous events. Tony Robbins has consulted and trained some military factions, you certainly could too. It takes a certain kind of insight to see and implement strategies. What a team you both could be.
Very interesting piece. I just wish that all the institutions would read it. Now, to cheer you up, I ran across this song from - yes - Boy George! And it is GREAT! https://x.com/roverseasfrance/status/2084252661575016583?s=46&t=D9CnfhhW76IhO4HHIr_Nww
that was great. thank you!
I didn’t even know he was still around! I found it very moving.
Arrogance and complacency. Two sides of the same cheap-but-terribly-expensive bureaucratic coin.
Excellent analysis
Fascinating article. Much of it applies to personal assumptions and decision making as well.
People like to make decisions and move on without second guessing which gives temporary peace of mind. Much like learning how to ignore sunk cost in investment decisions, a reassessment of past decisions is vital to future success.
Perhaps the most important attribute of any leader is to create an atmosphere that encourages and rewards all views, including a self examination of biases of the leader by the leader . Looking back over my 88 years, I'm having trouble coming up with any names.
As in the case of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, one cannot discount the possibility of intentional inaction by a cynical government willing to sacrifice its own people to achieve a political objective. In the case of Pearl Harbor, it justified FDR's long-standing antipathy towards Germany and his long-standing sympathy with communism, to plunge the United States into a war that the vast majority of the citizenry wanted no part of. In Israel's case, it justified full-scale war against Gaza (under the guise of disarming Hamas).
I took it more as a response to a threat of annihilation.
What all these events have in common: Institutionalization and the self-serving inefficiency of bigness. Smallness is an antidote to bigness, but coordinating smallness to scale presents much the same problem. Perhaps the insertion of “questioning gradients” with authority in the hierarchy, similar to Israel’s Devil’s Advocate could be a crucial component. The problem is clear in hindsight. But when the false alarms number 100, how does one identify the one of the 100 that is a valid threat?
But now, we are all called to action. The mass invasion that the Biden administration authorized is more than criminal. It is treasonous. Those behind the autopen scandal have skated free and are plotting a return to power, but their cancerous legacy is real. The canary in the coal mine has long been dead and its corpse rotted. We have too many enemies to ignore, and many are already here, some public, but the foreign functionaries are simply preparing and waiting for their signal to strike. Vigilance is the order of the day. See something, say something.
Very scary! Basically saying you have to constantly be imagining worse case scenarios to stay ahead of bad guys. Can’t ever let guard down!
This is the “mistakes were made” theory of history. There is also the “mistakes were not made” theory. I believe both are valid. The challenge becomes in knowing which theory was most relevant at a given place and time in history.
This essay makes a good argument for why a developer, Trump, is the best pick for president at this time.
As long as the group think boys don't decide what he should and should not learn.
EXCERPTS:
They were doing what the observers’ superiors did: receiving information that contradicted a settled model and dismissing it as noise.
A qualified judgment hardens into an unqualified premise
……enemy did not merely arrive unexpectedly. It arrived through a possibility the prevailing model had ruled out.
……studied the system……..
…young women at the observation posts did not hold a threat assessment. They knew what the far side of the fence looked like on an ordinary Tuesday, well enough to notice when it stopped looking ordinary.
….close enough to events to recognize …. forces preparing for war, .. warnings never reached the people making decisions
…only people with an accurate picture of what was happening on their own streets
….systems designed to move local knowledge upward to a central authority that would decide. Every one of these systems was designed on the assumption that local knowledge could be transmitted upward without losing its meaning.
….details most likely to challenge the model are the first to be discarded as noise. At every level, the filter preferentially strips away disconfirming evidence.
Auftragstaktik,