Friday night we had dinner at Nina’s house, with most members of our little band of brothers there - that is, the group of conservatives that we hang out with in our local area. We are pretty much all die-hard conservatives and Christians.
But there was a big Trump donor there, who truly believes that Trump's promise of a $5,000 “dividend” will swing the midterms. Because MAGA will be thrilled by getting extra money- and it will swing the center voters, because it is all about the economy now. He was all about it - very passionate that this was Trump’s ticket to winning the midterms, having just met with various people in the Trump administration and having watched Trump’s speech in Texas.
I was very skeptical of this as were others, and we had a rather active discussion.
First, I did some research on recent polling: Trump has not lost his MAGA base, but the newest polling suggests that the broader coalition that carried him to victory in 2024 is beginning to fray. A September Quinnipiac poll found Trump still has 79% approval among Republicans, but only 62% strongly approve, while among independents his approval has fallen to just 22%, with 68% disapproving.
UMass Amherst provides an even clearer warning: the share of Republicans identifying with MAGA fell from 77% in March to 68% in August, while those saying they are “not at all” MAGA rose from 23% to 32%. Reuters/Ipsos likewise finds Trump's overall approval around 33%, with an extraordinary 40% of Republicans disapproving of his handling of the cost of living.
The picture is therefore not one of a Republican revolt against Trump. The hard MAGA core remains remarkably loyal. Rather, the danger is that the outer ring of the Trump coalition, softer Republicans, independents, Latino swing voters, MAHA voters, and less-committed 2024 Trump voters, are peeling away, while enthusiasm (that would be TDS) among Democrats is rising. In a midterm election, Trump does not need his base to switch parties to lose Congress. He merely needs enough of the voters who expanded his coalition in 2024 to stay home.
Then there is MAHA. There is no recent polling to show whether the Kennedy-to-Trump voters who joined the coalition in 2024 remain in 2026, particularly among independents and former Democrats. But I think the answer is obvious to those in the movement or who follow social media trends.
Anyway, back to Trump’s $5,000 dividend check…
There are no national polls on whether people support the idea of a dividend (i.e., a payment) to each adult in the USA for a whopping total of 1.2 trillion dollars. So we ran a poll on Robert’s X page.
Now, the responses are pretty much all Trump voters or ex-Trump voters (MAGA, MAHA, independents, and Conservatives). Almost ten thousand people voted. Here are the results.
One major theme emerged in the comments:
“I’ll add it to my tariff check money and my 5k child tax credit... Oh wait”
The other consensus from the comments was basically that of the fiscal conservative:
”We don’t want the government taking our money and giving it to other people.”
None of this is good news for the Midterm elections and, frankly, 2028.
The economy will not improve by November; the House is lost - all it takes is four seats to flip, and the GOP holding the Senate majority is up in the air.
The statistics aren’t on our side.
Since 1994, there have been six midterm elections in which one party entered Election Day holding majorities in both the House and Senate. In five of those six elections, that party lost control of the House. Democrats lost the House in 1994, 2010, and 2022; Republicans lost it in 2006 and 2018. The sole exception was 1998, when Republicans retained their House majority during Bill Clinton’s second term.
Put another way, since 1994, a party entering the midterms controlling both chambers of Congress has retained the House only once in six tries, a success rate of just 17 percent.
No amount of pandering to the American public about future $5,000.00 payments or dividends will change the forecast. Although it might cause some conservatives to sit this election out.
The hard lesson that Trump hasn’t learned in this election cycle is that he needs to turn to the right - and fast.
And fixing the economy is very different from promising to fix the economy, when mid-term elections roll around.
Likewise, giving people money is very different than promising to give people money, when mid-term elections roll around.
People want to see results two years into a presidency.
At that dinner party last Friday, after all the talk about what the Trump administration has done wrong and how they could do better. We all came to one final thought:
We all have no choice but to get our asses out there and vote for the Republican candidate in November, cause what the left has done and will do to the country when they get power again is way worse!
JGM
Started with a winner...again
We are winning the meme wars, but losing politics. Trump has fucked up big time with Iran, and seems more interested in trolling people than ending wars, but it's not just that. And frankly, doc Malone, I can't believe some of your friends are serious about the 5K check. Human gullibility has no boundaries.