Türkiye's expanded role on the World Stage

The Istanbul Canal

Jill and I had the opportunity to spend ten days on a boat in the Marmara Sea in November - traveling through the Bosporus channel in Istanbul, Türkiye. We were with a number of leaders and writers from the medical freedom and global resistance movement. Being on a boat like this is one of the best ways for a small group of people to really hash out issues, discuss strategy, world politics and learn from each other. I think Jill and I both came away from the experience seeing the world through a slightly shifted lens. The donor of this trip is a dear friend, who I don’t want to dox. But needless to say, I am so grateful for having had this amazing experience!

Türkiye, with a population of 87.5 million, is a presidential representative democracy and a constitutional republic within a multi-party system. It has a thriving economy, but inflation and cost of living increases are significant issues. Although Turkiye has long been considered a secular republic, under President Tayyip Erdoğan, the government has formalized links with Islam. They have also removed secularists from governance. There are many who believe that the replacement of secularist policies in Türkiye, is due to the rise of socialism, which historically has played a large part of the Turkish government. Socialism and secularism are tightly intertwined in Türkiye, going back almost a hundred years.

Thus, business interests, who support President Erdoğan, were increasingly threatened by “socialist tendencies creeping into the government.” They believe that Islamic values are "best suited to neutralize any challenges from the left” to gain supremacy. (Wiki) Of course, here in the USA - there is also an increasing threat of socialism - decoupled from democracy and our republic. As secularism and it’s kissing cousin socialism creep into our political system, the tools to stop this virus are limited. This is the basis for the argument that promotion of traditional (orthodox) religions may advance the cause of of individual sovereignty and capitalism and serve as a counter to creeping secularist socialism.

In Türkiye, President Erdoğan’s party is the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The Republican People’s Party (CHP) is the secular, socialist party in Türkiye, and has the votes of the young. The Turkish June 2023 election looks like it will certainly be an interesting one.

All that said, Istanbul is a modern city. Most women do not wear scarves or traditional dress. Istanbul is also an ancient city - the Mosques, buildings, ancient walls and Roman ruins are steeped in history, which make it one of the great cities of the world to visit. Many are choosing to migrate there, including many Americans as well as Russians (particularly young men), who moving to Türkiye to avoid wartime conscription.

Is this a good time to write of the people that inhabit Istanbul? Ah, the people of Türkiye. How to describe? First, they are not one homogeneous group or peoples. Istanbul is ethnically diverse. Istanbul has a Northern European side, a Southern European side and an “Asian” or Anatolian section (on the other side of the Bosphorus channel).

An anecdote to illustrate the point about diversity. The Grand Bazaar in Istanbul was built in 1455 AD and houses about 4000 shops. It is a massive building- with too many indoor streets to keep track of, and it is full of delights in every corner. In 2014, it was listed as number one of the world's most-visited tourist attractions with 91,250,000 annual visitors.

It is the place to buy items actually “made in Türkiye.” There are rugs, jewelry, gold, tea, clothing, inlaid wood items, scarves, lambskin leather goods textiles, clothing and so much more (including lots of stuff from China). It is truly a shopping paradise, as well as the place to speak to, learn from, interact with and be amazed at how diverse and sophisticated the people of Türkiye are. The Grand Bazaar is an endless massive maze of humanity. By noon most days, the swarms of people in the Bazaar are almost overwhelming.

So there we are, in Istanbul… shopping. Now, personally -shopping is never high on my list of “to do” things in a city. But this time was different. It turns out that the old traditions still reign in many of the shops, and many of the shopkeepers follow traditional ways. After one has negotiated a purchase, the vendor might offer the opportunity to sit and drink Turkish tea (black), served in little cups. So, one sits in the shop at a little table, sips tea and talks and talks. This is not a “fast-food, eat and run” kind of relationship. The Turkish want to talk! This tradition is beautiful in its simplicity, and speaks to the very nature of the Turkish people and their love of people, relationships and good conversation.

Now those who know Jill, know that she is a bit of an introvert. But get her drinking tea and talking - and that all changes. She was able to draw out many interesting stories, history and also - what the Turkish people think of Turkiye’s governance. What came out in these conversations is a feeling of pride in country, traditions and culture, the kind of pride we used to have in the USA.

So, when buying scarves, Jill and the shop owner began talking politics in a round about way. The clerk in question was originally from Rhodes (Rhodos), Greece. From him we learned that China has invested heavily in Turkish infrastructure. They have sunk capital into huge suspension bridges - such as those that cross the Bosporus sea, roads, probably the new airport (said to be the biggest in the world) and the Istanbul canal. The what? “What is the Istanbul canal?” we ask. That is when we got a lesson in geopolitics regarding the Bosporus channel and Russian oil tankers.

One of the most interesting things about Istanbul and Türkiye is the local geography, which places the Marmara and Mediterranean seas on one side of the city and the Black sea on the other. The completely natural Bosporus channel connects the two, and the Black sea drains to the Mediterranean via the strategically placed Bosphorus. This channel is about ten miles long, very deep, and about 1000 foot wide -give or take. That means it connects Europe with Russia and Ukraine, and oil from Russia (currently) must pass through the Bosphorus. Which brings us to the Istanbul canal.

The canal aims to minimize shipping traffic in the Bosporus. It is projected to have a capacity of 160 vessel transits a day – similar to the current volume of traffic through the Bosporus, where traffic congestion leaves ships queuing for days to transit the strait. Some analysts have speculated that the main reason for construction of the canal is to bypass the Montreux Convention, which limits the number and tonnage of warships from non-Black Sea powers that could enter the sea via the Bosporus, as well as prohibiting tolls on traffic passing through it.[2] In January 2018, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım announced that Istanbul Canal would not be subject to the Montreux Convention (Wiki).

Now things make sense. See, we have been staying on a boat - on the Bosporus. Traveling up and down the coasts of Istanbul - as whim takes us. At the head of the Bosporus are oil tankers, literally as far as the eye can see. Bobbing along - anchored. At first, we thought that there must be some sort of hold-up with the Ukrainian war. But no. This is just another day in the life of Istanbul. So much oil is going through that channel that there is a constant back-up of oil-tankers. This is a little home movie of what that looks like.

What to do with so many ships needing to use the narrow Bosporus channel? So much oil to pass through such a small channel, with so little room to navigate… This has become an even bigger issue with the sabotage of Nordstream and Nordstream II.

The solution came to Türkiye over a decade ago. That was to build a second canal - that runs about 30 miles north of the Bosporus. That 28 mile canal has been under construction for some time, with a finish date by the end of 2026. That will allow Türkiye to limit the oil tankers going through the Bosphorus. Interestingly enough, it will also make a large portion of Istanbul an island.

But this is where things get really interesting.

The Montreux Convention 

Signed on July 20, 1936, the Montreux Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits gives Turkey control over the Bosporus Strait and the Dardanelles and regulates the passage of commercial vessels and warships. There is a clause, particularly for warships which is particularly applied the two Turkish Straits and is not used anywhere else in the world. The Convention brings serious restrictions on the passage of warships regarding their tonnage and the number of warships that can pass the straits in order to protect Turkey and the countries bordering the Black Sea. If the Montreux Convention is not applied to the Istanbul Canal, the NATO warships will easily reach the Russian waters. Another important aspect of the Montreux Convention is that naval ships not belonging to the Black Sea countries are allowed to stay in the Black Sea for no more than 21 days.

President Erdoğan is firmly of the opinion that the Montreux Convention will not apply to the new Istanbul canal. That the convention not allowing warships to pass through the straights does not apply to the new canal. Once the canal is finished, this will allow Türkiye to be the determinant as to what warships will and will not pass through from Europe to Russia and Ukraine (and vice versa). Ponder on that for a while.

In fact the European Commission has already issued a declaration that President Erdoğan’s decision on this matter to be invalid. With this declaration, the EU has determined that:

On 26 June 2021 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan laid the foundation stone of the Istanbul Canal, which will connect the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea, and went on to say that the project will take six years to complete.

However, the project circumvents the 1936 Montreux Convention, which established the international status of the Turkish Straits and guarantees the free passage of civilian ships from the six Black Sea States. Turkey’s Minister for Transport stated that the canal would generate an annual revenue of USD 1 billion, which would gradually increase. Under the current regime, Turkey cannot charge a transit fee to merchant ships using the Bosporus. The canal would only generate revenue if shipping companies were to use it, which they will have no reason to do as long as the Bosporus passage remains free. It is clear that this is a unilateral action by Turkey to annul the convention, leaving uncontrollable geopolitical consequences for the region.

In view of the above, (The EU commission responds):

What steps does the Commission intend to take to safeguard the rights of EU Member States that will be violated following this unilateral action by Turkey?

The 1936 Montreux Convention is an essential element in the context of Black Sea security and stability. The EU is not a party to the Montreux Convention. It follows, however, closely the issue and calls on all State parties to uphold their commitment to the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits.”

Furthermore, there is speculation that China may have a role in funding the canal. China has funded other large projects in the region, although the details of these investments is not known in much detail. So now, will China also have a role in controlling who travels on the new canal?

As Türkiye’s economy has grown, its desire to join the European Union has diminished considerably. Now, as Türkiye turns away from the EU, new horizons on the world stage are opening up before them. BRICS is one such opportunity that now presents itself to Türkiye. BRICS is the organization of five major emerging economies of the world, including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa

The president of the BRICS International Forum expects Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to join the group "very soon". In an interview with Russia's Izvestia, Purnima Anand said that China, Russia and India discussed this issue during the 14th BRICS Summit, which was held online last month.

"All these countries have shown an interest in joining and are preparing to apply for membership. I think this is a good step, because expansion is always perceived positively; this will clearly increase the influence of BRICS in the world," explained Anand. "I hope that the accession of countries to BRICS will happen very quickly, because now all representatives of the core of the association are interested in expanding the organization, so it will be very soon."

Türkiye’s future as a supply-chain gatekeeper, a peace-maker, as the decider of skirmishes for this region, and as a referee in some of the key conflicts of the world is only going to expand. The world knows it. All eyes are on modern Türkiye.

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