Avian Influenza: Updated Threat Assessment

Has the threat changed? Is CA Gov Gavin Newsom's State of Emergency justified?

(Audio Version)

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Sometimes I feel like a broken record when writing about infectious disease-based public health threats. There are real threats, such as multi-drug resistant Tuberculosis, but these are rarely discussed. And then there is the psychological (eg. information) bioterrorism, the fear porn, a hyped narrative concerning an existential threat repeatedly injected into public discourse and then intentionally amplified to the point that it becomes perverse and, in some cases disabling obsession for many.

Psychological Bioterrorism and Fearporn

There are many who benefit from psychological (or information) bioterrorism. As discussed in 2017 by former Soviet-Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) intelligence officer Dr. Alexander Kouzminov:

Objects or target audience of an ‘active operation’ <of psychological bioterrorism> may be – governments, high-ranking military officials, secret services of the enemy, political parties, banks, companies, etc. as well as ordinary populations, where the aim is to cause some kind of an impact and effect….

Information (or psychological) bioterrorism – this is a form of global influence. It can be even more effective, from the view of consequences and harm, which it can cause. Firstly, info-bioterrorism, in comparison with an act of bioterror is not and does not apply for strategic or military applications, political assassination, and acts of sabotage – to disrupt local infrastructures, to harm the health of local population, animals, or disrupt the environment of a certain country. Secondly, its organisers and interested organizations, use the potential pandemic threat, in order to reach certain results…

Propaganda is the main weapon to influence people, especially if they are not well informed. An ordinary human being it appears only has a ‘surface’ knowledge about how real these kinds of threats are, and is used to rely on the opinions of mass media.

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Fearporn definition

Fear porn refers to mainstream media content that deliberately and enticingly plays on people’s fears about disaster, disease, and death. It is often used to describe sensationalized and exaggerated reports or stories that aim to provoke strong emotional reactions, such as fear, anxiety, or outrage. This type of content can be found in various forms of media, including news, social media, and online articles.

Some definitions of fear porn also include the idea that it is used to manipulate people’s emotions and attention, often for the purpose of increasing viewership, engagement, or clicks. Fear porn can be seen as a form of psychological manipulation, as it preys on people’s natural fear responses to create a sense of drama or excitement.

In some cases, fear porn can also be used to describe conspiracy theories or misinformation that is spread online, often with the intention of generating fear, anxiety, or outrage. This type of content can be particularly harmful, as it can spread misinformation and perpetuate harmful stereotypes or biases.

Overall, fear porn is a term used to describe a type of media content that uses fear and sensationalism to engage audiences and manipulate their emotions.

AI-generated answer to Brave search query “Fearporn Definition”

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The bottom line here is that many national and global actors have long been known to exploit existential fear of infectious disease for political and economic benefit, and that there is a standard playbook for how this is performed. Therefore, the first thing that should come to your mind when you see this type of messaging being deployed and amplified in corporate media is the question, “Who and what is benefitting from this messaging”?

Conflicts of interest relating to the biodefense/infectious disease industrial complex abound. There are complex and hidden webs of influence that interlock politicians, industry, media, academia, Federal agencies such as DoD, HHS, and USDA as well as a wide range of individuals and organizations that benefit from Federal (and global public-private partnerships) policies relating to the biodefense/infectious disease industrial complex.

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What is the Current Threat Assessment for Avian Influenza, and Has it Changed?

I previously established and published a brief baseline threat assessment for Avian Influenza on July 02, 2024. Four dominant parameters must be considered when assessing a potential infectious disease threat to human populations.

1. Disease severity (a measurable objective truth)

2. Mechanism of transmission and observed transmissibility (an experimentally testable objective truth)

3. Evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission (a measurable objective truth)

4. Assessment of anticipated future risk (subjective, speculative, and hypothetical)

Politicians and their allies (in BioPharma, academia, and other sectors) have a variety of conflicts of interest and agendas which are not aligned with objective, dispassionate assessment and response to public health and infectious disease issues, and cannot be relied upon to analyze and respond to these key parameters objectively.

An assessment of the conflicts of interest and political agenda(s) of California Gavin Newsom is beyond the scope of this analysis. Still, please remember that Governor Newsom clearly mismanaged and overreacted to the COVID threat, as did the World Economic Forum that trained and coached (coaches?) him as a “Young Leader” and clearly continues to influence his political postures. Although California has remained under Democrat party control - in significant part consequent to “Rank choice” voting policies- during the recent Presidential election there was a clear shift and momentum towards the Republican party across the majority of the state. California has a very large Dairy industry, and I know that a leader in and representative of that industry has close connections to Governor Newsom. The presence of the virus in Southern California dairy farms is widespread, with over 300 dairy herds testing positive in the last 30 days

Has the threat assessment circa July 2024 changed? Let’s revisit the basics:

Disease Severity, December 2024

Disease severity continues to be mild, with the exception of one new case which apparently triggered Governor Newsom to declare a state of emergency in California.

According to Newsweek, “A person in Louisiana was hospitalized in critical condition with severe respiratory symptoms from a bird flu infection, according to state health officials. The patient had been in contact with sick and dead birds in a backyard flock, according to the CDC. Louisiana health officials said the patient is older than 65 and has underlying medical conditions.”

Here is the current CDC threat summary

• H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows with several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.

• While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.

• CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5 bird flu activity in people.

The CDC charts above document that the risk of H5 in humans is low, disease severity is low, and although massive testing has occurred, there are only 61 total "exposure" sources found from cattle, birds and other mammals. There are a total of three human cases picked up from the CDC flu surveillance program since February 25, 2024, and a total of 58 cases in the USA, after testing almost 10,000 people who were exposed to infected animals.

In sum, the profile of disease severity has not changed since July 2024. As opposed to initial reporting from corporate media, dark warnings from the WHO and Dr. Tedros, and the apocalyptic mutterings of Dr. Peter Hotez, there continues to be no evidence indicating the circulation of a highly pathogenic version of this virus in either animal or human populations.

Mechanism of transmission and observed transmissibility

All reported US transmission events involve human exposure in the context of intensive contact during animal husbandry or other known animal hosts, indicating that the mechanism of transmission remains intensive exposure to infected animals and animal carcasses. No change from July 2024.

Evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission

No evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, now or in the past with this currently circulating variant.

Assessment of anticipated future risk

This appears to be the crux of Governor Newsom’s alarmist response involving the declaration of a “State of Emergency” for bird flu in California. A statement from the governor's office characterized the move as a "proactive action to strengthen robust state response" to avian influenza A (H5N1), also known as bird flu.

"This proclamation is a targeted action to ensure government agencies have the resources and flexibility they need to respond quickly to this outbreak," Newsom said in a statement. "Building on California's testing and monitoring system—the largest in the nation—we are committed to further protecting public health, supporting our agriculture industry, and ensuring that Californians have access to accurate, up-to-date information."

He added, "While the risk to the public remains low, we will continue to take all necessary steps to prevent the spread of this virus."

This statement demonstrates either a profound ignorance of the mechanism by which animal influenza viruses spread, including avian influenza, or the presence of a hidden agenda. With a wide range of animal reservoirs, including migratory waterfowl, there is no way that the State of California can prevent the spread of this virus.

Conclusion

There has been no significant change in the current threat assessment associated with Avian Influenza relative to July 2024. The CDC, which has recently been implicated in industrial-scale “PsyWar” deployment of Psychological Bioterrorism regarding COVID and has an organizational conflict of interest in promoting vaccines and vaccine uptake, characterizes the current public health risk as low.

My conclusion regarding the Newsom declaration of a “State of Emergency” for bird flu in California is that it is being driven by a hidden agenda. There are multiple hypotheses regarding what that hidden agenda may be, but Newsom’s statement that "Building on California's testing and monitoring system—the largest in the nation—we are committed to further protecting public health, supporting our agriculture industry, and ensuring that Californians have access to accurate, up-to-date information." suggests that this declaration may, at a minimum, reflect advocacy by and for California’s infectious disease testing industry, which includes both academic and commercial components.

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