United States elections tend to swing like a pendulum, with parties in power often losing during off-year elections. We are divided by a two-party system.
Today's election results are precisely what we might have expected. Let’s go over some basic facts.
Democrats outspent Republicans almost three to one, and let’s face it, the Democrats had a better strategy for turning out blue voters. But beyond that, an off-year election cycle is complex for the party in power to win.
Virginia has been blue for a decade, with Northern Virginia dominating the polling stations. The outlier was Governor Youngkin’s win in the last statewide election, which was influenced by scandals in Northern Virginia involving a young man claiming to be a woman and abusing young women in school bathrooms, combined with some serious missteps by the Democratic candidate, who was strongly supported by Biden’s corrupt machinery. Before that election, Virginia had been seen as a deeply blue state - it is just returning to the status quo.
Beyond the basic logistics of Virginia’s politics, Winsome Sears is not a charismatic person. Nor is she a great orator. What Virginia needed was a strong candidate to run against Spanberger, and frankly, Winsome never had a chance to win. That was clear from the onset of the race. She was underfunded, never seemed to find her voice, compelling message, and a connection to the voters. Her opponent was very well funded, and blanketed voters with glossy direct mail advertisements that painted Sears as a threat who would raise taxes and curtail liberties.
Similarly, New Jersey is generally a Democratic state, and the fact that the Republican candidate even got as close as he did to winning is an impressive feat in an off year cycle.
In New York City, Democrats’ strong showing might suggest the electorate was eager for a shift further to the left. I don’t buy that logic - because what options were available on that ballot, really? On one side, there was the deeply unpopular and corrupt Cuomo, who didn’t even run as a Democrat or Republican. After Eric Adams made a mess of his term as mayor, with his reputation damaged and electoral weakness becoming a self-reinforcing loop, who was left to run? Who knows the name of the completely irrelevant Republican candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2025? I didn’t, until I looked it up.
For those who want to see an example of a deeply corrupted state, look no further than NYC’s 2025 mayoral ballot.
Fusion voting is a type of electoral system used in NYC that allows more than one political party to endorse the same candidate for an office. In NYC, this means a candidate’s name can appear more than once on the ballot. How fair is that?
The duplication of fusion voting options on the ballot can confuse voters and lead to mistakes. Without ID checks in NYC, the system remains vulnerable to fraud, as evidenced by past irregularities. These are not harmless features but appear as intentional systemic process risks that damage trust in elections. Reforming the ballots to be simpler, without duplicating candidate names, and ensuring voter IDs are verified are crucial to restoring voting integrity. But that isn’t going to happen anytime soon in New York City - so don’t expect anything different going forward.
Then there is California, a state where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by almost 2 to 1. So, is it any surprise that Prop 50 passed? This initiative is designed to allow the very blue Californian legislators to redraw its congressional map mid-cycle (i.e., between censuses) for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections. Just more gerrymandering - nothing to see here, folks. So, California Prop 50 will give more power to the Democrats in control of California. But this is another completely expected and unsurprising result.
Many people might be looking ahead to what this signals for 2026 and, more importantly, the 2028 presidential election. However, the truth is that the United States was simply following its usual voting patterns during an off-year election cycle. Since none of the results were significantly different from expectations, they don’t tell us much about what might happen in 2026 and beyond.
2026 looms large
Although the economy is no longer in free fall, economic growth is very modest. Furthermore, stock market analysts are predicting a major haircut sometime in 2026. This will further erode trust in Republican leadership.
The Congressional map is favorable to Republicans in the Senate, as Democrats would need to flip at least four seats to seize the majority, a difficult task under current conditions.
Some models suggest that Republicans may lose control of the House in 2026. That said, the 2027 Congressional race, certainly in the House, may be nothing more than a race to the bottom - as it may come down to which states can gerrymander the hardest, with indigo blue California taking the lead with Prop 50.
Congress only has a year left of guaranteed Republican control. Let’s hope that they can do a better job of making lasting changes because, frankly, what they have accomplished in 2025 has been rather lackluster.
The Trump administration has been the most muscular presidency in modern history, but lobbyists and big money continue to corrupt Congress. They have lost their way. Congress has not followed through with legislation supporting Trump’s agenda. This is a huge disappointment.
The scary reality is that most of Trump’s wins have been by executive action; Congress has yet to back up his tour de force with any meaningful legislation. If 2028 doesn’t yield a Republican president, all of Trump’s gains can be lost with the stroke of a pen on January 20th, 2028.
We are in a race to save America. One state at a time. The alternative is to watch them fall like Mamdami’s dominoes.
What happened yesterday is not predictive of the next two election cycles. What happened was to be expected, given the nature of the regional political base. But it was a wake-up call to anyone listening. Things may not go as planned.
The subsequent two election cycles are almost here, and the Republican Party and Congressional members are ill-prepared for the fight of their lives. Now is the time for them to get on board and do the real work of governing. Perhaps they should consider actively supporting the grassroots MAHA and MAGA movements?
The opinions expressed here are my own.
Did you ever wonder why no democracy has ever lasted throughout history? It’s a fact, but a fact too many people do not know or even ask. Plato lamented this issue and historians like Alexander Tytler connected the dots: it’s dependency on the government - that’s why democracies never last.
An ignorant electorate votes for more free stuff – but of course, they’re not the ones paying for free stuff, so they don’t think about it or care.
So, in VA, you have 57.5% voting for more free stuff, but the other 42.3% understand that the free stuff comes out of their paycheck, and no, we don’t want that. Too bad, mob wins.
And, Jay Jones is now in charge of VA’s Dept. of Justice (DOJ) b/c 53.1% don’t care that he’s ok with violence against a political opponent. Don’t debate, just use ad hominem attacks or literally beat them up. That’s a good person to be head of the DOJ, right? Not according to 42.3% of the voters who said, no, we don’t want that. But oh well, b/c the mob rules.
History has shown us that no democracy lasts:
https://lizlasorte.substack.com/p/history-tells-us-that-democracies?r=76q58
I will continue to vote, but I no longer believe that there will be lasting change in our country. Too many people are immoral, irresponsible and entitled. This quote from John Adams expresses our dilemma: "Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other." Our only hope is changed hearts.